IDC：手機明年重回復甦
Date: 2023-09-10
News Type:
新聞說明
市調機構IDC最新報告指出，2023年全球智慧手機出貨量預估為11.5億台，年減4.7％，為10年來最低；不過，隨著庫存條件持續改善，IDC預期明年手機市場將出現復甦，出貨量年增率4.5％，且看好未來5年手機出貨量都會維持正成長。
影響分析
依據諸家市調機構的預估，今年智慧手機市場規模大抵落在11億支上下，與前幾年12~13億支的規模相比萎縮一成左右。手機市場今年仍呈現低迷景氣，已連續2年衰退，這也導致高通、聯發科等手機晶片大廠業績出現下滑。根據高通上季財報，合併營收較去年同期相比下降了23%，其中手機晶片業務下降最高，達25%，而唯一成長的業務是汽車晶片，年成長達13%，顯示出手機市場需求不佳。需求衰退主要是受到全球經濟局勢尚未明朗，以及中國大陸景氣復甦不如預期所影響，使消費性電子市場的低迷態勢未明顯改善；此外在高通膨持續影響下，消費者的可支配支出被迫減少，消費行為趨於保守，越來越多民眾選擇延長換機週期或是購買經濟實惠的二手翻新機，當中二手機市場持續以二位數百分比成長，這兩個因素正悄悄削弱新機銷售動能。
不過IDC也預測，iPhone等iOS裝置今年出貨量有望成長1.1%，市占率19.9%，將為新高紀錄，相較下Android裝置今年出貨量則因總體經濟的挑戰而減少6%。這對台灣PCB產業而言，可謂是帶來正面展望，因iPhone占台灣PCB手機板近六成比重，故出貨增加有助於台灣PCB產業成長。受惠於iPhone新機拉貨效應，預估第三季台灣PCB在軟板、HDI、BT載板將有不錯的成長動能。
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