中國大陸６月零通膨 籠罩通縮陰影
Date: 2023-07-17
News Type:
新聞說明
中國大陸國家統計局最新公布，6月份消費者物價指數(CPI)年增率回落至零，生產者物價指數(PPI)年增率更進一步下降至-5.4％。兩者數據表現皆遜於預期，不僅代表需求持續低迷、復甦力道微弱，專家更憂心未來數月將陷入通貨緊縮。
影響分析
據國際貨幣基金(IMF)的定義，通貨緊縮是指整體物價水準普遍且持續地下降，通常以CPI作為主要指標，當CPI的年增率連續兩季衰退時，即符合通貨緊縮的定義。據中國大陸官方數據，今年3月以來其CPI已落至1.0%以下，且持續至6月更是跌至0%，顯示中國大陸面臨通縮與經濟衰退的威脅日益加劇。經濟學家普遍認為通縮的負面影響大於通膨，包括消費支出下降、投資活動趨緩、債務壓力增加、市場不確定性加劇等。
由於中國大陸是全球主要的消費電子產品製造與消費地區，中國大陸市場需求低迷，也連帶影響台灣PCB出口表現。統計2023上半年台灣PCB出口金額，較去年同期衰退26.9%，其中中國大陸為台灣最大出口目的地，佔整體出口值36.9%，但卻年減38.4%，衰退大於平均值，是主要的衰退原因。各界不僅未能等到中國大陸疫後重啟帶來的反彈紅利，更轉變為全球市場的不確定性因素，對於以手機、電腦等消費電子為主力的台灣PCB產業，下半年的復甦之路充滿挑戰。
資料來源：工研院產科國際所整理
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