全球升息抑消費 學者示警上半年恐都藍燈
Date: 2023-02-14
News Type:
新聞說明
國發會景氣燈號從去年十一、十二月都亮出代表低迷藍燈，而全球通膨及各國升息仍持續中，歐洲央行升息幅度更大，都會壓抑歐美需求，今年接下來狀況會更惡劣，上半年恐怕都會維持藍燈。
影響分析
受到俄烏戰爭、能源危機、通膨飆漲等衝擊，各國持續以加息因應，但也已嚴重打擊消費意願。自2022年下半年起，美國與歐洲因通膨而開始削減消費，中國大陸則是受到疫情管控影響，使得台灣出口的三大引擎接連熄火，出口值從去年9月跌破400億美元，到12月更是降至357億美元規模。儘管目前已見通膨觸頂，但各國央行還尚未改變其升息政策，因此高利率、低消費的情勢還會再持續一陣子。
由於手機通訊與個人電腦是目前台灣PCB產業的兩大應用市場，在大環境的不利因素下已難有成長能量，而去年底鴻海鄭州廠事件造成iPhone新機出貨停滯，更是一拳重擊，讓台灣PCB產業罕見地在Q4旺季出現衰退情形。而對於2023年的展望，目前看來應是「先蹲後跳」局面，低迷市況持續至上半年，僅靠部分高階產品如ABF載板、ADAS、伺服器等支撐。下半年則預期景氣將漸漸復甦，需求恢復，加之基期效應，可望能有小幅成長。載板、電動車、5G手機、伺服器、衛星通訊等將會是今年產業成長的重點應用，預估台灣PCB產業應能維持成長但成長幅度低於2022年，2023年成長率將為1.6%。
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