IMF示警 今年全球1/3經濟體陷衰退
Date: 2023-01-06
News Type:
新聞說明
國際貨幣基金(IMF)於1月1日警告，2023年全球三分之一經濟體將陷入衰退。由於美國、歐盟和中國大陸三大經濟體都預期經濟放緩，今年將是比2022年「更艱困」的一年。
影響分析
受到俄烏戰爭、通膨飆漲、以及中國大陸疫情嚴峻，在在衝擊全球經濟。歐盟身陷俄烏戰爭泥沼，IMF預估2023年將有1/3的歐盟成員國陷入經濟衰退危機。在中國大陸，由於官方政策急轉彎使得疫情快速擴散，使中國大陸去年年末的經濟發展呈現疲軟趨勢，包括PMI與房地產指數都持續下探，IMF認為2023年中國大陸將出現四十年來首度「拖累」全球經濟成長的情況。在美國，由於現階段的勞動市場表現強勁，整體經濟韌性強，有望避免進入衰退階段，但要仍須面對高通膨的壓力。
台灣是出口導向經濟體，亦是全球重要的半導體與電子零組件供應中心，或許部分廠商能在地緣政治效應下吃到轉單紅利，但整體而言在大環境嚴峻情勢下目前沒有太多樂觀的條件。對台灣PCB產業來說，這一場由半導體產業的繁榮景氣與因應疫情而生之需求，所帶來的成長派對已結束，接下來將回到疫情前的成長水準。預估手機、個人電腦等消費性產品仍持續萎縮，2023年產業成長動能將仰賴部分高階產品(如載板、伺服器、車用電子)與新興應用(如低軌衛星、MiniLED)所提供。
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