科技業:惡性循環恐正要開始
Date: 2020-02-20
News Type:
新冠肺炎疫情蔓延,儘管中國大陸各地陸續復工,但生產線員工返崗的比重仍偏低。產業人士認為,中國大陸內需市場龐大,但民眾無法正常上班、加班,導致收入銳減,加上不敢出門等因素影響,進而讓消費力呈現疲軟狀態,將使得科技業陷入惡性循環,「最嚴峻的狀況還沒到來」。
新冠肺炎疫情已衝擊大陸半導體供應鏈,熟知中國大陸半導體產業的重量級人士分析,儘管中國大陸為顧及經濟,近期擬放寬復工限制,但疫情蔓延,已造成大中國陸內需消費銳減、許多零組件斷鏈,衝擊當地半導體供應鏈和全球經濟甚深,預估第2季訂單就會將受波及而下修。
中國大陸晶圓代工龍頭中芯國際聯合首席執行長趙海軍日前便示警,雖然中芯目前公司位於上海、北京及天津等地工廠產能依舊滿載,但最嚴峻情況還未到來,預計影響可能在第2季緩慢浮現。
科技市調機構集邦科技指出,中國大陸主要半導體重鎮人工大多來自外地,人力缺口與交通限制等,將使晶圓代工業者復工率低於預期,短期內產能利用率不易回復至正常水平。
集邦預期,在目前疫情仍未有效控制下,預估第1季中國大陸代工業者的整體出貨可能下修,連帶影響下游的中國封測業者。至於IC設計端,因本身沒有生產廠房,所需的直接人工遠低於晶圓代工與封測業者,研判受衝擊較小。
此外,今年雖然是5G遍地開花的關鍵年,按理說市場需求仍在,目前的情況很可能只是遞延,但若新冠肺炎疫情無法緩解,庫存去化時間就會一直拉長,導致今年上半年科技業景氣陷入低迷,進而影響下半年表現。(新聞來源:經濟日報)
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