Members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) are expected to sign an agreement this year. According to experts, Taiwan has a small chance of joining the RCEP in the short-term and the status of Southeast Asian countries has quickly escalated following the US-China trade war. These experts have also stated that Taiwan’s economy is likely to be marginalized in the future.

       

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research describes that Taiwan’s foreign investment has reached record-highs in recent years but the effectiveness of attracting foreign investment in Taiwan has been relatively modest. However, whether Taiwanese entrepreneurs can return to Taiwan to implement their declared investment commitments is yet to be determined. It is also predicted that Taiwanese manufacturers will continue to expand their businesses aboard in the future.

       

If the cross-strait deadlock remains unresolved this year, the subsequent negotiations under the cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement, including the service trade, goods trade agreements, etc., will not be able to advance. As a result, Taiwan’s product export competitiveness will be weaker and the economic marginalization crises will be even higher than anticipated.

 

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) came into effect at the end of 2018 and the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea have recently reached a consensus on the advancement of the RCEP; however, Taiwan has failed to join both agreements.

 

The RCEP may be signed in 2020 and Taiwan is still excluded from this agreement. Chien-Yi Chang, the President of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER), believes that although it is an unfavorable situation for Taiwan, South Korea has signed the most trade agreements, even though their total exports last year were weak. This indicates that the quality of products will be the most important factor, which is also perhaps the best time to drive Taiwanese companies to transform and upgrade their equipment and products. (News source: Economic Daily News)