台經院張建一：台經濟最壞情況快過了
Date: 2019-07-29
News Type:
台灣經濟研究院7月25日公布最新國內總體經濟預測，針對2019年台灣GDP成長率估值，台經院再度維持2.12％，也是各機構迄今公布的最高數值。台灣經濟研究院長張建一表示，下半年台灣經濟成長率會逐季愈來愈好，只要不再有太意外事件，台灣過去幾季受到景氣衝擊的影響不會再擴大。
台經院景氣預測中心7月25日也公布6月營業氣候測驗點，製造業與服務業營業氣候測驗點同步下滑，營建業則為連續第二個月的上揚態勢。台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德分析，6月製造業相關數據表現實際上已有改善，業者對未來景氣看法也較5月樂觀。
台經院指出，近期經濟數據和國際預測機構對景氣的看法，彼此不一致。國際上，主要國家貿易紛爭尚未完全停歇，全球經濟需求轉弱，市場預期美歐貨幣政策將進一步寬鬆。在國內，受惠於轉單效益、供應鏈生產基地轉移與半導體庫存調整接近尾聲，包括消費、投資的內需恢復成長力，此次公布的經濟預測更新，就上調了民間部門固定資本形成、政府消費、商品及勞務輸出等。
張建一說，中美貿易戰現轉為長期持久戰，如果沒有特殊情況，戰火高熾的情況可說是過去了，台灣經濟則獲得內需愈來愈好的支撐，台商回台投資估計會在第三季、第四季在總體經濟發酵。(新聞來源:工商時報)
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