貿易戰副作用 將擴及全球
Date: 2019-06-11
News Type:
中美貿易戰火延燒,岳豐集團董事長葉春榮表示,稍早與美國友人聊到中美貿易戰,這位曾任前總統小布希的經濟幕僚打包票說,美國對中國2千億美元商品課稅絕不會從10%全部上調到25%,頂多「看項目加徵」,否則就像「七傷拳」,也會嚴重傷害美國經濟。
此外,針對美方宣稱考慮再對剩下未加徵關稅的3千億美元加稅,葉春榮憂慮地表示,美方一旦加徵25%關稅,中美企業就無法像先前加徵10%時一樣,相互分擔加稅的成本,這肯定會轉嫁給美國消費者,雖然無法預測美國人的購買力,但其整體消費力一定會減弱,後續效應將擴展到全世界。
岳豐在中美兩地經營多年,葉春榮表示,美國有不得不打壓中國的理由,「美國怕丟掉全世界老大的寶座」。他認為,美國目前只剩兩項優勢,第一個是GDP,第二個是就是高科技。GDP部分,市場預測中國很快超越美國,那就只剩高科技,當前美國全力圍堵中國通訊設備大廠華為,就是針對中國崛起的5G科技。
葉春榮說,美國很清楚在目前中國的政治制度下,其政策具有針對性與延續性。美國人看到中國訂立「中國製造2025」,加上中國的經濟規模、科技優勢、軍事力量等崛起,「老美不得不打」。
至於中國的下一步,葉春榮判斷,在美國朝自己猛揮大棒之後,中國原本的膨脹心態會收斂,會體認到自己原來沒有那麼強大,姿態將轉趨低調,但仍會默默提升自己實力。他斷言,「中國製造2025」中國不可能會放棄,而且未來中國一旦成功做大其內銷市場,就不用太倚重外銷,「未來中美之間的勝負就很難講了」。(新聞來源:工商時報)
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