TPCA預估兩岸PCB Q2產值可較Q1微幅成長
Date: 2019-05-31
News Type:
TPCA(台灣電路板協會)發布2019Q1季產銷數據,統計台商兩岸PCB產業2019Q1產值達1,362億新台幣(約為44.18億美元) ,較去年同期1,410億新台幣相比衰退-3.4%,預估2019Q2產值可達1,526億新台幣。
TPCA表示,Q1為電路板產業傳統淡季,因應農曆春節客戶提前備貨,因此就整體電路板的出貨量觀察,需求減少的幅度較低於產值衰退的幅度。2019 Q1台灣電路板海內外整體表現可歸納以下幾點:1.傳統淡季加上手機銷售低迷,首季衰退合乎預期。2.台灣軟板因美系手機銷量衰退而大幅減少。3.車用板市場因汽車銷售衰退、進入廠商增加,同業競爭加劇。4.軟硬結合板逆勢成長,仍難以支撐整體大局。
2019 Q2雖可逐漸脫離淡季需求,但在前端半導體產業表現不佳的狀況下,電路板產業仍以保守態度視之,其中影響產值成長與否較大的關鍵在於載板及軟板產品。載板由於ABF仍然存在供不應求的狀況,載板廠也相繼擴充產能,因此ABF載板仍是目前載板成長的主要動能之一,但由於手機在Q2出貨預估仍未能成長,因此傳統手機使用的載板需求下滑可能大於ABF成長的幅度,成為載板在Q2甚至全年度成長與否的變數。至於台灣軟板廠因為和美系手機的關連性非常大,自2018年下半年美系手機發布出貨警訊後,台灣軟板的產值的確受到很大的影響,預估今年第二季末軟板廠可能才會慢慢開始感受到今年美系手機新機的訂單需求,因此預估2019年第二季台灣電路板產值微幅成長至1,526億新台幣。
影響2019年後續全年產值表現的觀察重點包括:1.高階手機在新興國家的滲透率能否提昇? 2.台灣軟板廠降低美系手機依賴度,客戶多元化的營收成效? 3. 產品改朝換代變更設計,台廠在原有供應鏈地位是更加穩固或是被取而代之? 4.中美貿易戰進入實質影響層面,接下來和平落幕或是開戰交鋒仍待靜觀其變。台商在大陸生產比重約62.5%,TPCA協會表示將持續關注產業關鍵議題,將透過即時性的評析報告、座談會、論壇為台灣PCB產業傳遞關鍵資訊。(新聞來源:TPCA台灣電路板協會)
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