【台灣】台灣台經院：製造業景氣 連續3月「景氣衰退」
Date: 2019-03-11
News Type:
台灣台經院近日公佈一月製造業景氣燈號，由去年十二月的9.74分，微幅減少0.02分至9.72分，燈號續為代表「景氣衰退」的藍燈，為連續三個月藍燈，儘管景氣信號分數減幅已明顯縮小，但台灣台經院認為，未來仍需更多數據支持，才能判斷景氣是否真的觸底。
台灣台經院分析，全球景氣需求放緩，主要國家製造業活動萎縮，出口表現續弱，不過台灣地區受惠於農曆春節前備貨需求增溫，抵銷部分減幅，因此一月出口與外銷訂單年減幅度收斂，加以國際油價與股市反彈回升，廠商對當月景氣看法轉為樂觀，因此整體製造業景氣信號值較上月僅微幅減少0.02分。
觀察個別產業，機械設備受美中貿易摩擦影響，使得來自中國大陸的市場需求萎縮，但來自美國和日本的採購持續成長，加上部分專用生產機械適逢春節提前出貨，因此一月台灣地區機械產品出口正成長，不過外銷訂單與生產指數仍呈現負成長，導致機械設備業景氣燈號續維持低迷的黃藍燈不變。
台灣台經院表示，近期全球經濟出現如美中貿易談判朝正向發展、國際油價觸底反彈，金融市場表現亮眼等和緩跡象，但半導體產業正面臨向下修正，智慧手機、服務器、消費性電子等各項科技產品需求轉弱，加上一月因受惠春節提前備貨效應影響，才使得台灣地區相關製造業數據表現較上月為佳，未來仍須關注相關數據，才能判斷台灣地區景氣是否觸底反彈。 (新聞來源:聯合報)
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