商研院：景氣將緩升至7月
Date: 2018-03-19
News Type:
財團法人商業發展研究院繼「商業服務業景氣指標」改版後，5日發布最新商業服務業景氣動向分析與預測，景氣循環預測小組指出，台灣商業服務業景氣將持續緩慢爬升至今年7月無虞。
商研院景氣循環預測小組表示，以美國「全國經濟研究局」（NBER）景氣綜合指標法編制的台灣商業服務業景氣循環「領先指標綜合指數」，預測經證實可代表商業服務業整體景氣動向的「同行指標綜合指數」可從去年12月的99.77百分點持續緩慢上升為今年7月的99.85。
商研院表示，比較前面各次的複蘇過程，發現2008年金融海嘯使同行指標循環指數急速下墜到2009年6月的97.39，接著也快速爬升，經18個月回到長期趨勢正常水平的100 ，平均每個月上升0.145，是典型的V型複蘇。
但值得警惕的是，預測及估計值到今年的7月，歷經18個月其指數才只達到99.85，平均每月才上升0.0228，顯示未能恢復正常趨勢水平之前，上升步調已見逐漸緩慢了下來。這是一次在金融海嘯之後，整體經濟結構體質未見真正恢復提升導致的「低度均衡」現象。商研院呼籲，我們不能不對下半年的可能動向採取較高的戒備並做應有的努力。 (新聞來源: 經濟日報)
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