Impact analysis
        In 2020, the number of global 5G base stations is predicted to reach 1~1.2 million, with mainland China providing about 600,000 to 800,000, for a coverage rate of almost 10%. The shipment volumes of 5G smartphones are expected to approach 200 million units, with the business opportunities arising from the demand for these components predicted to be substantial. The demand for “quality” will lead to an increase in the proportion of high-end products, such as 5G applications that range from the construction of base stations, 5G mobile phones, and terminal communication equipment to various types of 5G applications. Due to the working environment of high-frequency/high-speed signals, the quality of many parts and components for the devices will also be upgraded in specification. For example, for the core chip of 5G base stations, the ABF carrier boards (with a high unit price) will replace the BT carrier boards due to the significant increase in the number of I/Os and chip area. Moreover, the unit price of base station antennas will also increase to more than double, and the millimeter-wave 5G mobile phones that only contain a PCB, RF components, AiP, and camera module, will cost about $100.
       An increase in “quantity” will result in economies of scale for manufacturers: It is expected that in the 5G era, the frequency band will increase from 15 in the current 4G era to 30, the number of filters per phone will increase from 40 to 70, and the number of switches will increase from 10 to 30. The number of PAs will also increase considerably: the newly derived AiP antennas will have 3 to 5 on the mobile phone side, and as many as 20 to 25 on the communication equipment side. Because manufacturers must increase their capital expenditure one after another, it is likely to form economies of scale for large factories.
        Furthermore, motherboards for 5G smartphones will be upgraded from ordinary HDI to any-layer HDI or higher-level 3-layer carrier boards, and antennas will be changed to higher-level integrated AiP, with the RF modules needing to be integrated with a higher number of passive components. Also, the PA will require support from higher-level SiP, better-efficiency thermal modules, and a bigger ABF carrier board in the base station. As all these upgrades require high capital expenditure, and it is estimated that more manufacturers will raise capital through the stock market to meet capital expenditure requirements.