News briefing 

 

 

Gartner has predicted that the mobile phone market will present the weakest performance among all other electronic devices in 2019. With shipments down by 3.8% from last year, global shipments are currently left with 1.745 billion mobile phone pieces. Although 2019 is regarded as the first year of commercialization for 5G, it appears that the 5G industries are still unable to sustain the weak and slow-moving mobile phone market.

 

 

Impact analysis 

 

 

Aside from the mobile phone market recession among the other terminal products worldwide in 2019, it is expected that traditional PCs (including desktop and NB) should decline by more than 4%, tablet PCs by more than 2.5%, and the volume of car sales by 2.5%. In addition to the uncertain global economic situation (trade war, growth rate, etc.) that has resulted in the decrease in demand for these terminal products, the smartphone market will experience a transition in 2019 as 4G services will gradually be stopped, while 5G products are not yet ready to replace these 4G services. Despite the impression that 5G mobile services have already unveiled and started in Korea and the United States, the conditions are far from satisfactory and are incapable of generating a 5G mobile phone demand. Thus, this period of transition should last longer than expected before the change of cellphone production can be well shifted. 

 

 

 

 

 

Although the year 2019 is regarded as the first year of 5G mobile communications, it is estimated that the preliminary period for creating 5G infrastructures should have started in 2018 and that the size of the relevant market reaches only about US$32.4 billion. By 2025, the 5G business opportunities are expected to only reach US$123.3 billion; this value is estimated in addition to the market value created by the continued deployment of hardware facilities such as base stations and smartphones or the initiation of other 5G applications. According to the estimation by Ericsson, the number of 5G users around the world will only have reached 1 billion in 2023, accounting for about 12% of the global population. Among these users, approximately 48% of 5G mobile phone users will be in North America (North America is considered the area with the highest proportion of 5G users) and the figure is higher than 34% in East Asia and 21% in Western Europe. Moreover, the overall penetration rate continues to be low and consequently, the competition for 5G business opportunities are going to be lengthy and time-consuming. 

 

 

Furthermore, Apple mobile phones have been consistent in leading the trend of mobile phone functions around the world. Therefore, Apple’s failure to efficiently launch its 5G smartphone in 2019 is considered as a significant reason for consumers’ delay in purchasing 5G mobile phones. However, the good news is that the US Patent Office has recently passed relevant patents for Apple 5G smartphones and it is estimated that these smartphones will be officially unveiled in 2020. Given the news, it is worth looking forward to the new Apple 5G cellphone’s ability to enhance the penetration of the 5G industries and improve the revenue of the related Taiwanese PCB supply chain manufacturers.